INSEE has established new population projections for metropolitan France (mainland France and Corsica) for the years 2007-2060, updating those of 2006. They take account of the population adjustments made after the censuses of 2006 and 2007. The new projections are based on final population estimates by sex and age on 1 January 2007 and on new assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration, the three factors governing population change. A series of 27 scenarios was calculated, comprising a central scenario and variants that are useful for analysing the impact of a change in one or more assumptions on the projected results. Under the central scenario, fertility remains high (1.95 children per woman throughout the projection period, versus 1.90 in the 2006 projection). The mortality assumption is slightly more optimistic than that of the previous projection for the oldest-old (above age 85 for men and above age 91 for women). As in 2006, the projection assumes positive net migration of +100,000 persons per year. On 1 January 2060, under the central scenario, metropolitan France will have a population of 73.6 million inhabitants, 11.8 million more than in 2007.

Source: Projections de population 2007-2060 pour la France métropolitaine - méthode et principaux résultats. Insee, Document de travail