Centenarians in France: a number that is difficult to predict

En 2018, la France métropolitaine compte un peu plus de 16 000 centenaires. Passer le cap des cent ans n'est donc plus un phénomène rare, surtout pour les femmes, largement majoritaires à cet âge (près de 5 femmes pour un homme). Avant la seconde guerre mondiale, les centenaires ne se comptaient que par dizaines et c'est tout juste s'il y en avait 200 en 1950. Depuis, leur nombre a explosé : 977 en 1960, 1122 en 1970, 1545 en 1980, 3760 en 1990 (voir tableau sur le nombre de centenaires. Évolution et projection)...

Mais les centenaires restent pour la plupart "jeunes" centenaires : plus de 86% ont moins de 105 ans et 32% n'ont pas encore fêté leur 101e anniversaire.

Should we conclude that human longevity is increasing?

Not necessarily. It may be that the maximum limit of human life has not changed (while remaining unknown to us) and that the increase in the number of centenarians is simply a mechanical result of rising life expectancy due to advances in healthcare. The higher the number of persons living to age 90, the greater the chances are that part of the population will reach age 100. The spectacular rise in life expectancy in the twentieth century was due primarily to falls in infant and young adult mortality. It was only in the second half of the century, and especially after 1970, with advances in the struggle against cardiovascular diseases, that mortality among older persons began to fall, accelerating population ageing and radically improving chances of reaching age 100 (Vallin and Meslé 2001). On the hypothesis that the regular decline in mortality will continue, 11% of the children born in 2000 could reach 100-16% of the girls, 4% of the boys, for as we know, female life expectancy has progressed faster than male, explaining the population imbalance in favor of females.