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Population 2019, n° 3
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Population 2019, n° 3

2019

Changing Patterns and Determinants of First Marriage over the History of the People’s Republic of China
Kim Qinzi Xu -- Young author’s prize, 2019

The Marquis de Sade and the Question of Population
Jean-Marc Rohrbasser, Jacques Véron

Economic Hardship and Transformation of Unions in Kinshasa
Jocelyn Nappa, Bruno Schoumaker, Albert Phongi, Marie-Laurence Flahaux

A Cohort Survival Comparison Between Central Eastern European and High-Longevity Countries
Marília R. Nepomuceno, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Who Steps Back? Dual-earner Couples’ Organization of Paid Work and Leave Upt ake After Childbearing in Belgium
Jonas Wood and Leen Marynissen

Period and Cohort Measures of Internal Migration
Martin Kolk

 

Changing Patterns and Determinants of First Marriage over the History of the People’s Republic of China
Kim Qinzi Xu

Throughout the history of the People’s Republic of China, age at marriage has increased as a result of state policy intervention and socioeconomic changes, although the popularity of marriage remains undiminished. At the same time, concern is growing over forced lifelong singlehood among segments of the population, which is due to a sex ratio imbalance in the marriage market and gender differentiation in mate preferences. To address that research gap, this study adopts cure survival analysis to jointly model the determinants of first-marriage likelihood and timing. Data from multiple rounds of the Chinese General Social Survey are used to assess changes in marriage over successive birth cohorts. The results suggest that, among most male and female cohorts, a lower level of education is linked with younger ages at marriage, although with lower chances of ever marrying. For younger male cohorts, residence in less developed provinces is found to be associated with earlier marriage entry but reduced marriage likelihood. Among younger female cohorts, living in metropolitan cities stands out as the most important factor in reducing marriage propensity.

The Marquis de Sade and the Question of Population
Jean-Marc Rohrbasser, Jacques Véron

In four major texts written between 1795 and 1799 (Aline et Valcour, Histoire de Juliette, La Nouvelle Justine, and La Philosophie dans le boudoir), Sade shows a keen interest in the question of population. He develops something approaching a coherent system, in which ‘propagation of the human species’ is considered an impediment to well-being, both for the individual and for society as a whole. Sade contends that no effort should be spared to limit human ‘propagation’, arguing that the species holds no exceptional status in nature. Child abandonment, infanticide, sodomy, and abortion are presented as checks on population. Further, like Malthus at the same time, Sade fears an increase in the numbers of the poor; he expresses outright hostility to any efforts to relieve their condition. Whatever the excesses of Sade’s characters, the ideas articulated in their ‘disquisitions’, owing to their coherence and originality, warrant serious examination. Whereas for Malthus the principle of population ultimately justifies moral restraint, for Sade, the pursuit of pleasure must always prevail. The Sadean theory of population is founded on the dialectic between destruction and creation.

Economic Hardship and Transformation of Unions in Kinshasa
Jocelyn Nappa, Bruno Schoumaker, Albert Phongi, Marie-Laurence Flahaux

Kinshasa, a metropolis with a population of 10 million, has undergone major economic, social, and demographic transformations over recent decades. This article analyses changes in marriage practices in Kinshasa against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions and high unemployment. Data from the MAFE survey (Migration between Africa and Europe) conducted in Kinshasa in 2009 reveal the decline in first unions and in marriages, for men and women alike. Event history analyses show that economic hardship reduces the likelihood of marriage. The effects of economic factors are stronger for men than for women, and the difference in marriage likelihood between rich and poor men has widened over time. These findings can be explained in part by the rising cost of marriage, shouldered mainly by the groom and his family, and the growing difficulty of acquiring the necessary sums of money. In this context, consensual unions and non-marital births are becoming more frequent and are tending to replace formal marriage.

A Cohort Survival Comparison Between Central Eastern European and High-Longevity Countries
Marília R. Nepomuceno, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Despite the recent and great improvements in survival across Central and Eastern Europe, this region still lags far behind more developed populations. We take a cohort perspective to investigate the mortality gap between these countries and a group of today’s high-longevity countries, thus showing how cohort survival contributes to overall mortality difference. We decompose the ‘truncated cross-sectional average length of life’ (TCAL) measure in order to isolate the contributions that age and cohort make to the mortality gap. Using data from the Human Mortality Database, from 1959 to 2013, we find that—compared to their counterparts in highlongevity countries—most Central and Eastern European cohorts born from 1959 onwards have higher mortality levels from birth to the age reached in 2013. Also in comparison to these countries, we find a survival advantage for some Central and Eastern European cohorts, e.g. for Czech cohorts born in the early 1960s and for those from former USSR countries born during the 1960s.

Who Steps Back? Dual-earner Couples’ Organization of Paid Work and Leave Upt ake After Childbearing in Belgium
Jonas Wood and Leen Marynissen

Although Western countries have witnessed the unprecedented rise of the dual-earner model, the shift towards gender equality in the labour force remains incomplete as gendered divisions of paid work are articulated after childbearing, and the overwhelming majority of parental leave is used by mothers. Using Belgian register- based panel data for 1999–2010, we assess dual-earner couples’ relative employment characteristics prior to childbearing in relation to parental employment and leave uptake strategies. Multinomial logit models support the microeconomic hypothesis that, through specialization and bargaining, there is less likelihood of leaving the labour force among partners with higher pre-birth wages, more working hours, higher employment intensity, and larger workplaces. Regarding the assumption that gendered patterns in leave-taking are related to lower opportunity costs for partners with lower wages and easier access to parental leave, particularly in relation to stronger labour force attachment or large workplaces, limited evidence has been found in support of this idea. Finally, simulations indicate that, at the aggregate-level, the impact of gendered pre-birth employment characteristics is not strong enough to overturn gender inequality in response to childbearing. As to parental leave uptake in particular, this persisting gender inequality is potentially related to gendered parenting norms and institutions.

 Period and Cohort Measures of Internal Migration
Martin Kolk

Migration is rarely analysed from a cohort perspective, which is not the case for the two other main demographic phenomena of fertility and mortality. This study shows how standard demographic methodology can be used to study internal migration from a combined period and cohort perspective at the population level. Age-specific migration rates and the total migration rate are presented for both period and cohort data.
Administrative register data are used for the years 1970 to 2012 on all interparish migration events for the complete population of Sweden. The results show an overall increase in the concentration of migration events in early adulthood, while total migration frequencies over the life course remained stable since 1970, with a small decline in the 1980s. Cohort rates show less fluctuation than period rates. The study shows that a population-level approach is useful not only for migration but also for simultaneously examining cohort and period trends. These methods can easily be extended by decomposing data into different distance thresholds and according to migration order, given the available data.