Population 2008, n°1
2008
DEMOGRAPHY OF THE WORLD’S REGIONS: SITUATON AND TRENDS
- The Demography of South Asia from the 1950s to the 2000s. A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment - J. Véron
ARTICLES
- Economic, Social and Spatial Dimensions of India’s Excess Child Masculinity - C. Z. Guilmoto
- From the Baccalauréat to Higher Education in France: Shifting Inequalities - M. Duru-Bellat, A. Kieffer
SHORT PAPERS: Recent population trends in Italy
- Has the Fertility Decline Come to an End in the Different Regions of Italy? New Insights from a Cohort Approach - M. Caltabiano
- A Marriage Cohort Analysis of Legal Separations in Italy - M. Castiglioni, G. Dalla Zuanna
- BOOK REVIEWS
The Demography of South Asia from the 1950s to the 2000s. A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment
Jacques Véron
The countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) cover less than 4% of the Earth’s surface, but their combined population of some 1.6 billion inhabitants in 2007 represents nearly a quarter of the world total. India, the largest country in the region, alone has 1.17 billion inhabitants. This chronicle charts the main demographic trends since the 1950s, which are explained in part by the countries’ diverse levels of development. Their demographic transitions also exhibit broad diversity. There is no single transition model specific to the region, just as there is no single transition in India, as the comparison of its states makes clear. Except in Sri Lanka, where the process is complete, the fertility transition is ongoing, and the mortality transition is in general very advanced. The potential for demographic growth remains high in South Asia, since the United Nations expects the region’s population to grow by 600 million inhabitants up to 2040. The future course of demographic change has major implications for development, since most of the countries need to reduce poverty and raise educational levels while at the same time coping with rapid urban growth and addressing environmental issues.
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Economic, Social and Spatial Dimensions of India’s Surplus of Boys
Christophe Z. Guilmoto
This article examines the determinants of the current increase in the sex ratio among children in India in the light of regional data. The marked disparities between districts, as revealed by measuring spatial autocorrelation, are a key to understanding these recent developments. They can be used to assess the relative influence of a large number of social and economic characteristics on inter-regional sex ratio variation. The specific effect of economic prosperity is shown to be clearly correlated with the rising sex ratio. Extended modelling of these regional variations, incorporating the spatial dimension, demonstrate the specific roles played by the sociological composition of the population, economic development and diffusion effects. The conclusion offers an interpretation of these various determinants of high sex ratio in India.
From the Baccalauréat to Higher Education in France: Shifting Inequalities
M. Duru-Bellat, A. Kieffer
INSEE’s most recent survey in 2003 makes it possible to evaluate changes in higher education in two birth cohort groups at either end of the period of rapid expansion in access to the baccalauréat (upper secondary exit examination) from 1985 to 1995. We examine how this opening up affected social inequalities in access to and success in higher education. The undeniable democratization of the baccalauréat has been followed by a more limited democratization in access to higher education. The first wave concentrated new working-class students in vocational baccalauréats; but owing to the strong links between secondary and higher education in France, these students’ options in higher education have been restricted as a consequence. In particular, access to the selective elite grandes écoles has seen no democratization among holders of the baccalauréat, whereas shorter vocational courses and non-selective university courses have opened up. This limits the effect on social mobility of democratization of education at this level, because career opportunities increasingly depend not so much on the level of qualification but on the subjects chosen.
Recent Population trends in Italy
Has the Fertility Decline Come to an End in the Different Regions of Italy? New Insights from a Cohort Approach
M. Caltabiano
Throughout the twentieth century, Italy was characterized by significant regional differences in fertility rates. In this article, a cohort approach is employed in order to further explore regional variation. More specifically, total cohort fertility rate is calculated for the various Italian regions for cohorts born between 1935 and 1968. In addition, recently published data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) for the years 1999-2005 are examined. They allow us to extend our analysis to the first phase in the reproductive lives of cohorts born in the 1970s and in the early 1980s. This analysis shows that first, for the cohorts born up until the 1960s, fertility declines and regional differences remain relevant; and second, for the cohorts born from the 1970s on, the speed of the fertility decline slows in the north and even come to a halt in several regions, while continuing to drop in southern Italy. If this trend remains constant over time, cohort fertility levels in all Italian regions may eventually converge at similar levels.
A Marriage-Cohort Analysis of Legal Separations in Italy
M. Castiglioni and G. Dalla Zuanna
This short paper presents the trends in legal separation in Italy by marriage-cohort and duration, and discusses future prospects. To catch a glimpse of the future of legal marital dissolution in Italy, the authors: (i) project the probabilities of legal separation by duration; (ii) perform a territorial analysis of the twenty Italian regions, suggesting the possible explanations for territorial differences; (iii) compare Italy and Spain (where divorce became legal in 1981), and examine the situations in other western countries, where marital dissolutions became widespread earlier (USA, UK, and France). Many clues suggest that legal separation will becoming increasingly frequent over the coming years for all marriage cohorts.
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