Five years after the pandemic, younger generation left vulnerable

Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic, what lasting impacts has it had on the paths of young people in France? With publication of the findings of the “COVID-19 and Education”, INED reveals the enduring effects of the health crisis on the educational and occupational trajectories of young people. 

The school closures and massive use of remote teaching decided by the Italian authorities in spring 2020 caused significant learning losses among students from primary through middle school over the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 academic years, particularly in reading and math. This conclusion is based on Italian data; Italy’s educational system is comparable to France’s. The analyses show that the above-cited effects were not entirely eliminated when students returned to the classroom: two years later, the effects of the fall in academic performance could still be observed among students exposed to the health crisis, with comparable proportions of affected primary and secondary school students. The findings also highlight different effects by sex—girls’ reading skills seem to have been more lastingly affected than boys’—and marked differences by region, related to unequal adaptation capabilities of different schools.   

Moreover, a considerable proportion of teachers were not able to set up online classes quickly, particularly in schools which had less in the way of a digital skills instruction program; this in turn limited student access to continuous learning. 

In France, the orientation and study program preferences of students in their last year of high school when the health crisis hit were in turn affected by the context of uncertainty caused by lockdown measures and school closures. Analysis of data from “Parcoursup” [the internet platform students soon to graduate use to pre-register for their first year of higher education and indicate their orientation preferences] brings to light a change in preferences; specifically, an increase in applications for selective, structured study programs such as preparatory classes [the aim of which is to prepare students to apply successfully for admission to France’s elite training institutions, the grandes écoles] and a relative drop in the option of a general first-level university degree and some occupation-focused training programs.

In a context of greater uncertainty, the preparatory class route may have been perceived by applicants and their families as a safer long-term plan given that those programs provide stronger guidance and clearly identified job outcomes. Conversely, general first-degree university programs, which in France are more open and less structured, may have appeared riskier given the overall environment. Scientific and technical disciplines have made headway, reflecting a recentering on education programs perceived as relatively promising for working life, at the cost of aggravating existing social and gender inequalities in access to selective education and training. 

Studies listed below show a rise in the risk of students in France abandoning university studies at the time of the health crisis—particularly students enrolled in their first or second year—following the disruptions caused by reiterated lockdowns and campus closings. Moreover, the probability of students re-enrolling in the following year fell by nearly 4%. This effect, the magnitude of which can be compared to that of a decade of falling enrollment, more strongly affected first- or second-year university students, male students, foreign students, and students enrolled in certain disciplinary programs, particularly economics-and-management and the humanities. The analyses also indicate that the severity of lockdown policy weighed heavily on the behaviors involved in pursuing higher education. 

The health crisis in France brought with it a temporary decrease in employment among young people who had completed their training between 2016 and 2017. During France’s first lockdown period, the probability of these young people (under 30 for the most part) being employed fell by approximately 3%. This effect was nonetheless more contained than those observed in other countries, suggesting that French public policy in support of employment had a buffering effect. Young people on short-term work contracts and some service-sector graduates were the most exposed, while graduates of health education programs have been the most resilient. 

Taken together, these findings portray a generation faced with durably discontinuous educational and occupational trajectories. They highlight the importance of designing public policies that target key moments in young people’s academic years in order to combat basic learning losses, ensure implementation of digital skills instruction programs, reinforce high school graduate orientation guidance, prevent dropping out of higher education, and find means to secure young people’s first work experiences.

As educational systems and the labor market continue to be exposed to new shocks, the research studies listed below offer important material for public policy decision-making on questions of education, youth support, and equal opportunity.