Demographic trends in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2020, the challenges between now and 2050

The journal Population’s 2020 annual chronicle focused exclusively on developments in sub-Saharan Africa, a region composed of 47 countries and a total of 1.1 billion inhabitants that year. The article provides both a detailed synthesis of the major sociodemographic and health-related changes in the region between 2000 and 2020 and a statistical assessment that draws on the most reliable data on each country. 

It examines developments in marriage and the family, fertility and intermediate fertility variables, child and adult mortality, migration and urbanization, population numbers and age structures, as well as population development prospects and the challenges to be faced between now and 2050 in key areas like education and training, health, and employment.

Since the year 2000, sub-Saharan Africa has had the most rapid demographic growth in the world (around 2.7% per year, as against between 0.3% and 1.8% elsewhere); extremely high fertility though now declining slightly (4.7 children per woman in 2017, as against 1.7 to 2.8 elsewhere); and the highest mortality (life expectancy of 61 years), though it is very clearly diminishing: life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa is now only 8 years below life expectancy in South Asia, as against 12 years below in 2000. Between 2000 and 2017, the population of Africa rose by 58% while that of the rest of the world rose by 19%.

While Africa will continue to have the world’s strongest demographic growth and youngest population throughout the 21st century, there are many changes underway, the pace of which varies by region, country, living environment and social groups. This in turn leads to increasingly diversified demographic trends as well as marked spatial and social disparities. 

In most sub-Saharan countries, fertility has only just fallen for the first time; the use of contraception has increased yet the desire for children remains strong. Nearly everywhere in the region, age at first marriage is rising and polygamy is declining, yet spousal age differences and the proportions of adolescent brides are still substantial. 

By contrast, the region as a whole has recently experienced remarkable drops in mortality, particularly child mortality, and notable increases in life expectancy. AIDS levels are lower, though the disease has not at all disappeared; maternal mortality remains quite high; and non-contagious diseases are on the rise, resulting in a double epidemiological burden. 

Africa is “urbanizing,” but at diverse paces and more slowly than imagined twenty years ago. The number of big cities and megalopolises has risen substantially. International migration has increased sharply since 2000, the greater part of it still within the continent, though migrant destinations have become more diverse. Meanwhile, traditional models of migration to countries and regions beyond the continent are declining. 

Last, according to the United Nations’ most reasonable assumption—i.e., a probable doubling of the sub-Saharan African population by 2050 and a possible more-than-tripling of the population by 2100—sub-Saharan Africa will have considerable challenges to face in the areas of education, health, employment, security, and sustainable development.

A statistical appendix is presented at the end of Population article just presented, as follows:

  • Changes in population densities (2000-2020) and numbers (1980-2050)
  • Changes in birth and death rates and rates of natural increase (1960 to 2019)
  • Median age at first union, proportion of early marriages, and intensity of polygamy and permanent singlehood in the 2010s
  • Changes in total fertility rates (1960-2020) and modern contraceptive use (1980 to 2020)
  • Fertility levels, timing, and characteristics in the 2010s
  • Changes in life expectancy at birth and child mortality at ages 0-5 (1960 to 2020)
  • Delivery conditions, mortality, and health of children in the 2010s
  • Age structures by broad age group and dependency ratios in 1980, 2000, and 2020

Ten countries representative of the social, economic, and demographic diversity of sub-Saharan societies were studied in particular detail: Nigeria, Rwanda, Ghana, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Niger, Cameroon, Tanzania, and South Africa.

Source: Dominique Tabutin, Bruno Schoumaker, La démographie de l’Afrique subsaharienne au XXIe siècle. Bilan des changements de 2000 à 2020, perspectives et défis d’ici 2050, Population 2020-2 et 3 [FR]

Contacts: Dominique Tabutin, Bruno Schoumaker

Online: November 2020