Recent Demographic Trends in France 2025: marked territorial contrasts

France’s natural growth has never been so low: in 2024, there were only 0.2 births more than deaths per 1,000 inhabitants. This situation, which has not been observed since the end of the war, is explained by a continuous fall in birth numbers, estimated at 661,000 in 2024, as against 833,000 in 2010. The total fertility rate came to 1.62 children per woman, a dip of 0.04 points compared to 2023. That decrease particularly impacts what is traditionally the oldest fertility age bracket (25-34) and affects all types of areas. The rate of definitive childlessness (referring to women who are without children at age 50) has risen since 2014. France risks losing its unique status in Europe of the country where completed fertility (total number of children born to women of the same generation during their reproductive lives) still ensures generational renewal, at slightly over 2 children per woman. 

With net migration estimated at 152,000 people in 2024, migration flows are now the main driver of demographic growth in France. In 2024, 343,000 first residence permits were delivered, mainly to students (32%) and to reunite families (26%). 54,514 people were granted residence permits for humanitarian reasons—the same level as in 2019. Over half of these newcomers (55%) settle in densely populated urban départements, as against a mere 15% in rural ones. 

Rural areas, where one-third of France’s population lives—have shown negative natural balance since 2015, a phenomenon due to an age structure more consistent with mortality than birth. However, with age controlled for, women inhabitants of these areas have more children on average than women in cities. Rural-area demographic growth can only be attributed to the arrival of new inhabitants. Meanwhile, urban areas, where two-thirds of France’s population live, still show positive natural balance in that births in them exceed deaths. However, major cities are less proving less attractive than tourist-drawing rural communities, large villages and peri-urban rural municipalities. There the trend is driven primarily by young families and retirees. Fertility among young city-dwellers who then move to less densely populated areas is higher than among sedentary people. Conversely, young rural inhabitants leaving for cities have fewer children on average than others. 

After the fall in unions caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, official unions bounced back in 2024. The number of marriages hit its highest level since the early 2010s, probably due to couples carrying out relatively longstanding marriage plans. The number of civil unions (PACS), a type of union preferred by same-sex couples, widows and widowers, and divorcees, dipped slightly after the record peak observed in 2022. Marriage is still the most frequent couple situation among people aged 18 to 64, but that proportion has been diminishing from year to year. 

In 2024, 252,000 voluntary pregnancy terminations (IVG: Interruption Volontaire de Grossesse) were done in France, 8,000 more than in 2023. Four out of five were medication abortions, and that proportion is continually rising. The share of abortions done in doctors’ offices rather than hospitals is increasing, though that trend is stronger in urban areas than rural ones. In 2024, for the first time, midwives were in charge of more abortions than private doctors (GPs and gynecologists together). 

Nearly 8,000 abortions were done for medical reasons in 2024, a lower figure than in 2023. 

The renewed rising dynamic in life expectancy at birth observed in France in 2023 was confirmed in 2024, with the average length of men’s lives reaching 80.0 and women’s, 85.6, but the gains remained slight following the first small post-COVID rebound in 2023 (+0.1 year compared to 2023). Considerable regional disparities subsist in metropolitan France, with urban départements showing an approximately 2-year advantage over rural ones. The rural disadvantage is relatively recent: life expectancy was higher there until the mid-1990s. Disparities between urban and rural départements are widest for external causes of death (notably suicide).