In 2023, Vietnam crossed the threshold of 100 million inhabitants, and its population continues to grow. But how far? What will the country’s population look like in the future? In this latest issue of Population & Societies, published by INED Éditions, Gilles Pison (French Museum of Natural History, INED) and Catherine Scornet (Aix-Marseille University, IRD) look back at the last 50 years of demographic change in Vietnam. They compare Vietnam’s trends to those of three other Asian countries—China, South Korea, and Thailand—, thus revealing the specificities at play in Vietnam.
A population that has doubled since reunification
When the country was reunified 50 years ago in 1976, it had 46 million inhabitants. Less than a half-century later, that number has doubled to more than 100 million. This growth can be largely explained by the country’s demographic transition: mortality dropped steeply while fertility remained high. Life expectancy at birth improved from 48 in 1950 to almost 75 in 2023. According to the United Nation’s medium projections, Vietnam’s population could reach a maximum of around 110 million inhabitants mid-century, before declining to 92 million in 2100.
Fertility fell from six to fewer than two children per woman
The current demographic slowdown can be explained principally by the drop in fertility. Whereas Vietnamese women had an average of six children in the 1960s and early 70s, today they have have an average of just 1.9 children. This shift has been observed in many other Asian countries. In 1988, the Vietnamese government instated a one- or two- child policy intended to limit births, but its influence is difficult to evaluate. The rapid drop in fertility—observed first in China and Thailand in the 1970s and 1980s—is primarily due to the desire of families in those countries to have fewer children at the time. This is the case everywhere when education levels rise and living standards improve and is not solely a result of government policy. Faced with rapid ageing, the one- or two-child policy was gradually relaxed before being completely abandoned in 2025. Today, the Vietnamese government encourages families to have two children.
A stable imbalance between boys and girls
The practice of sex-selective abortion in favour of boys developed in th early 2000s in Vietnam, leading to a rise in male births per female births. At its peak, the sex ratio at birth reached 114 boys for every 100 girls during the 2010s, compared with the universal rate of 105 boys for every 100 girls. This imbalance is felt more strongly in the north of the country than in the south, and particularly so in the Red River Delta. Although it is beginning to wane, its effects will be felt for several decades. The generations affected are now reaching marriage and childbearing ages. Some men may find it more difficult to find a partner, while the lower number of women may accentuate demographic ageing as well as the decline in births.
Will Vietnam follow on the same path as its neighbours?
Future fertility trends are now one of the country’s main demographic uncertainties. South Korea, China, and Thailand have all seen their total fertility rates fall to levels around one child per woman, which is far under the generational replacement rate. If Vietnam follows the same trajectory, its population could decline more rapidly than expected and ageing could be even more rapid. The country’s demographic future will therefore depend largely on changes in family behaviour over the coming decades.
KEY FIGURES
• 100 millions inhabitants in Vietnam in 2023.
• 46 millions inhabitants at the time of reunification in 1976.
• 110 millions inhabitants expected (United Nations’ medium estimate) by the mid-21st century
• 75 years of life expectancy in 2023 versus 48 en 1950.
• 1.9 children per woman in 2023 versus 6 in the 1960s and early 70s.
• 114 boys for every 100 girls born at the peak of the imbalance in sex ratio at birth in the 2010s.
• Abolishment of the one- or two-child policy in 2025.
