An Unprecedented Decline in Fertility in the Maghreb
Which factors explain this fertility decline in the Maghreb? Are Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia in an identical situation? What demographic challenges does this lead to? At what rate is contraception spreading?
A largely continuous decline in fertility over half a century
Over the course of 50 years, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia have experienced an exceptional decline in the number of children born per woman. In the 1970s, women gave birth to an average of 7 to 8 children. By the early 1990s, that figure had been halved. Since the 2000s, the trends in the three countries have diverged: Morocco has seen a continuous decline in fertility, uninterrupted for several decades; Algeria experienced a rebound in the mid-2010s before beginning a new decline; Tunisia, the first country in the Maghreb to fall below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, is now experiencing the sharpest decline. In 2024, the total fertility rate (average number of children per woman) is estimated at 1.53 children per woman in Tunisia and 1.97 in Morocco, while it stands at 2.61 in Algeria, though a downward trend has been observed since the 2010s rebound.
Later marriage and new family patterns
The decline in fertility can be partly explained by changes in marital and family patterns. In Tunisia, young adults remain single for longer, thus delaying family plans. Between 2014 and 2024, the proportion of single people increased significantly among both women and men under 40. In Algeria, the rebound in births observed in the mid-2010s was closely linked to a sharp rise in marriages, driven by a temporary improvement in economic conditions and large generations’ arrival at adulthood. Morocco’s pathway is different: despite relatively early marriage among women, fertility continues to decline. This highlights the role access to contraception has played in the drop in births.
The increasing role of contraception in Morocco
Contraceptive practices are evolving in contrasting ways across the three countries, but Morocco stands out for its steady increase in contraceptive use. In 2018, 71% of married women used a contraceptive method, compared to 40% in the 1990s. This increase has gone hand in hand with greater use of modern methods. Conversely, contraceptive use has declined slightly in recent years in Algeria and Tunisia.
Women earn more degrees but lack stable employment prospects
Across the three countries, women are now earning degrees at a much higher rate than in the past. In Tunisia, they now account for nearly 60% of students in higher education. However, this progress does not translate to stable employment: unemployment among young female graduates remains high, and women’s career paths remain precarious, particularly after having children. These difficulties in balancing family life and work contribute to delayed maternity and a decline in the number of children.
Demographic ageing underway in the region
The sustained decline in fertility is already transforming the age structure of Maghrebi populations, and Tunisia appears to be furthest along in the ageing process. The share of people aged 60 and over in Tunisia rose from 8% to 17% between 1997 and 2024. Ageing is also progressing in Morocco and Algeria and is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. As the number of births declines, population growth is slowing sharply. Unlike in many European countries, migration does not offset this trend: the Maghreb region has historically had more departures than arrivals.
KEY FIGURES
A sharp decline in fertility:
- 7 to 8 children per women in the 1970s in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia
- 1.58 children per woman in Tunisia in 2023
- 1.97 children per woman in Morocco in 2024
Different patterns:
- In Algeria, a temporary rebound in births in the mid-2010s
- Steady decline in Morocco since the 1990s
- Since 2014, return to rapid decline in Tunisia
Contraception:
- 71% of married women in Morocco used contraception in 2018, of which 58% used modern methods
Population ageing:
- In Tunisia, people aged 60 and over represented 17% of the population in 2024, versus 8% in 1997
Source : Population & Societes n 644, May 2026 : «Historically low fertility in the Maghreb », Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi (Paris Cité University and Côte d’Azur University , CNRS, IRD, INED), Ibtihel Bouchoucha (Institut national de la statistique (INS), Tunis) et Soumaya Abdellatif (Ajman University,United Arab Emirates)