Cross-national comparison of social psychological influences on fertility intentions in eight European countries

How does the decision to have a child vary across countries, and what differences between countries and individuals might explain differences in how this decision is made? This paper presents selected results from studies conducted within the REPRO (Reproductive decision-making in a macro-micro perspective) project, to illustrate methods, findings and opportunities for further work. We use a social psychological model of influences on human behaviour, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to guide our work. First, we descriptively compare the beliefs about having a child of 25 to 34 year old males and females, childless (parity 0) and with one child (parity 1), in eight European countries. There are apparent country-level differences - and similarities - in beliefs about the consequences of having another child, about the expectations of normative referents, and about ability to have or care for another child. We then compare the influence of attitudes (derived from beliefs about consequences), perceived norms (derived from the beliefs about the expectations of others) and perceived control (derived from beliefs about constraints) on intention to have a(nother) child among 25 to 34 year old females. Using multi-group structural equation modelling as implemented in the AMOS software, we build a measurement model to support valid cross-national comparison and simultaneously explore the relative effects of these three sets of social psychological influences on intention to have a(nother) child during the next three years. A subsequent macro-level exploration shows that cross-national differences appear to be associated with differences in family- and child-friendly policy. The paper concludes with some observations about the results and their possible implications, and an overview of opportunities for future research that builds on this work.