Thèse en cours : New Approaches in Mortality
Modelling and Forecasting
ED et Université: Interdisciplinary Centre on
Population Dynamics, Department of Public Health, Faculty of
Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark
Encadrants: Dr. Carlo
Giovanni Camarda, Prof. James Oeppen, Prof. Vladimir Canudas-
Résumé de these:
Age-at-death distributions provide a very informative description of
the mortality pattern of a population, and they are well suited
to study longevity and lifespan variation. However, they have
generally been neglected for modeling and forecasting mortality. The
vast majority of mortality analyses and forecasting models are indeed
based on age-specific mortality rates or on summary measures
of the mortality pattern.
Mortality rates readily represent the change in the risk of death over
age and time, but they do not provide an immediate answer to
two key questions in mortality studies: How long does a population
live on average, and how variable are ages at death? On the other
hand, the age-at-death distribution yields readily available
information on the “central longevity indicators” as well as on
This PhD project aims to bring new insights on the analysis and
forecast of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by developing
novel statistical methods focused on age-at-death distributions. The
project is structured into three papers that have age-at-death
distributions as common unifying theme. In the first article, a novel
parsimonious methodology will be introduced to model and
forecast the adult age pattern of mortality. In the second article, the
methodology will be extended to the entire age range,
including infant and younger adult mortality. Finally, the third article
will focus on the analysis and forecast of causes-of-death
from cause-specific age-at-death distributions.
Basellini, U. and Camarda, C.G. (2019). "Modelling and Forecasting Adult Age-at-death Distributions". Population Studies. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2018.1545918
Basellini, U., Canudas-Romo, V., and Lenart, A. (2018). "Location–Scale Models in Demography: A Useful Re- parameterization of Mortality Models". European Journal of Population. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-018-9497-x
Basellini, U. and Camarda, C.G. (2018). "A Three- Component Lee-Carter approach to decompose and forecast human mortality". Proceedings of the 33rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling Bristol (UK). 15-20 July, 2018. 17-22. Link: https://people.maths.bris.ac.uk/~sw15190/IWSM2018/IWSM33- 2.pdf
Sutter, A., Barton, S., Sharma, M.D., Basellini, U., Hosken, D.J., and Archer, C.R. (2018). "Senescent declines in elite tennis players are similar across the sexes", Behavioral Ecology. Link: https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/ary112
Archer, C.R., Basellini, U., Hunt, J., Simpson, S.J., Lee, K.P., Baudisch, A. (2018). "Diet has independent effects on the pace and shape of aging in Drosophila melanogaster". Biogerontology, vol. 19, p. 1-12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10522-017-9729-1
Gigliarano, C., Basellini, U. and Bonetti, M. (2017). "Longevity and concentration in survival times : the log-scale- location family of failure time models". Lifetime Data Analysis, vol. 23, n°2, p.254-274. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-016-9356-1
"Presentations in LaTeX". European Doctoral School
of Demography (EDSD) 2017-2018 & 2018-2019
Population Days (PopDays) Conference 2019 (Milan, Italy,
January 2019). Oral presentation of "An age-at-death distribution
approach to forecast cohort mortality" & "Do senescent declines in
elite tennis players differ across the sexes?"
Workshop on Forecasting Danish Life Expectancy and Age at
Retirement (Odense, Denmark, December 2018). Oral presentation of
"An Age-at-Death Distribution Approach to Forecast Cohort
33rd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM) 2018
(Bristol, UK, July 2018). Poster presentation of "A Three-Component
Lee-Carter approach to decompose and forecast human mortality".
European Population Conference (EPC) 2018 (Brussels, Belgium,
June 2018). Oral presentation of "Extending the Lee-Carter
Model to the Three Components of Human Mortality".
Tel Aviv Workshop on Inequality and Uncertainty in Length of Life (Tel
Aviv, Israel, May 2018). Oral presentation of "Life expectancy and
lifespan equality: A long-run relationship with recent interruptions".
83rd Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA,
Denver, Colorado, April 2018). Oral presentation of "Extending the
Lee-Carter Model to the Three Components of Human Mortality".
28th IUSSP International Population Conference (Cape Town, South
Africa, October 2017). Oral presentation of "Modeling and
Forecasting Age at Death Distributions: A Nonparametric Approach".
13th International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions
Conference (Taipei, Taiwan, September 2017). Oral presentation of
"Modeling and Forecasting Age-at-death Distributions".
MaxNetAging XII Conference (Rostock, Germany, May 2017). Oral
presentation of "Modeling and Forecasting Age-at-death
Distributions" & joint presentation of "Life expectancy and lifespan
equality: a long-run relationship" (with J.M. Aburto).
IUSSP Seminar on Mortality analysis and forecasting (New Delhi,
India, April 2017). Oral presentation of "Modeling and Forecasting
Age at death Distributions".
Population Days (PopDays) Conference 2017 (Florence, Italy,
February 2017). Oral presentation of "Modeling and Forecasting Age
at death Distributions".
European Population Conference (EPC) 2016 (Mainz, Germany,
September 2016). Oral presentation of "Modeling and Forecasting
Age at death Distributions".
European Journal of Population
Genus: Journal of Population Sciences
Asian Population Studies
Journal of Population Research