People in France want fewer children

Young people in France today want fewer children than their counterparts twenty years ago – a trend that runs across social groups. In the latest edition of Population & Societies, INED researchers Milan Bouchet-Valat and Laurent Toulemon draw on new data from the ERFI 2 survey to shed light on this decrease in the desired number of children in France in recent decades.

Between 2014 and 2024, fertility in France fell from 2.0 to 1.6 children per woman. This rapid decrease is explained in part by a marked shift in fertility intentions: young adults now want smaller families. In 20 years, the average number of desired children among women under 30 has dropped by 0.6 (from 2.5 to 1.9 on average). Cohorts born in the early 1980s, today in their 40s, had a little over 2 children per woman over the course of their lifetime (completed fertility). In the future, this will probably be reflected in their having fewer children.

The norm of the two-child family is still dominant, but its status has evolved. It is increasingly perceived as a ceiling, not a floor. In 2024, 65% of 18- to 49-year-olds said that two children is the ideal number, up from 47% in 1998. The share who responded ‘Three or more’ has fallen sharply (from 50% in 1998 to 29%), while the number saying ‘zero or one’ has been growing. Among young people aged 18-29, intending to have no children or a single child is now more common than intending to have three children, and intending to have none is more common than intending to have four or more. Only 10% of young men and 16% of young women want three or more children, while 20% and 14% want only one child.

While the drop in fertility intentions is seen across all social groups, levels of intentions vary according to certain factors. Today, an egalitarian conception of gender relations is associated with the desire for fewer children among men – something that was not the case in 2005. Concern about the future – whether about climate change, the weakening of democracy, or prospects for new generations in general – also plays a role: among individuals who are very worried about the future that awaits upcoming generations, intended fertility is 0.11 lower on average than in other groups.

Source:People in France want fewer children, Population & Societies n° 635, Milan Bouchet-Valat, Laurent Toulemon

On line:July 2025