France 2022: a narrowing gap between births and deaths

Author: Gilles Pison

Three years after the first lockdown in March 2020, Gilles Pison reviews recent mortality trends in France, showing that excess deaths are linked not only to the COVID-19 pandemic but also to other events such as seasonal flu outbreaks and heatwaves. Examining the projections for the next half-century, he addresses two key questions: Why is life expectancy increasing more slowly than before? And will COVID-19 have a long-term impact on births?

In 2022, life expectancy at birth reached 79.3 years for males and 85.2 years for females.

The stagnation of life expectancy over the last three years is due mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by excess mortality related to three heatwaves in the summer of 2022 and seasonal flu epidemics at the beginning and end of the year.

Viewed in relation to the long-term trends observed since 1994, the recent annual life expectancy fluctuations show that progress is slowing.

While the COVID-19 pandemic had little impact on the number of births, it temporarily modified their seasonality in 2021.

Also, the postponement of childbearing observed over the last 40 years is continuing; the women who gave birth in 2022 were aged 31.0 years on average (29 years at first birth). Mean age at childbearing has been increasing steadily since 1977, when it was 26.5 years.

Publised on: 22/03/2023