New methods for measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in Europe. A Bayesian approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates using EU-SILC harmonized survey data

the Monday 19 September 2022 at l’Ined dans la salle Sauvy de 11h30 à 12h30 en Hybride (présentiel + possibilité de connexion).

Présenté par : Angela Greulich : CRIS (Centre de recherche sur les inégalités sociales), Sciences Po et Laurent Toulemon : Ined ; Discutant-e : à venir

Résumé

This study provides new measures allowing comparing within-country differences in current fertility behavior in Europe. By mobilizing data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we measure the educational gradient of female period fertility for a large set of European countries. A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow us to obtain credible intervals for the age, education- and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table in order to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates, enabling international comparisons for specific groups (e.g. highly educated women) or for particular dimensions of fertility behavior (e.g. childlessness). This analytical set-up allows us to reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility behavior within each European country and in how far these differentials vary between European countries. More precisely, we answer the question if –all birth orders combined– heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. In addition, we show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest.

Biographie de Angela Greulich

Angela : Angela Greulich is Full Professor in Population Studies at I.E.P. Sciences Po Paris. She previously worked as Associate Professor in Economics at Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne. She has also  worked as consultant for the OECD and the World Bank. Her research focuses on interactions between demographic dynamics, women’s working activities and social policies in European countries. She is particularly interested in socio-economic differentials of fertility behaviour, their context dependency and their implications for family and labour market policies. Angela Greulich works mostly with European survey data (mainly EU-SILC), applying panel data econometrics.

Biographie de Laurent Toulemon

Laurent : Laurent Toulemon est chercheur à l'Ined. Il a participé à ou dirigé de nombreuses enquêtes sociodémographiques en France, sur les situations conjugales, les comportements de fécondité et de recours à la contraception et à l’interruption volontaire de grossesse. Il a été co-rédacteur en chef de la revue Population de 2008 à 2017. Ses travaux actuels portent d’une part sur la manière dont la population et les familles sont repérées au recensement français et dans les enquêtes de la statistique publique et, d’autre part, sur les comportements de fécondité et les changements familiaux en Europe. Il est responsable, avec Milan Bouchet-Valat, de la prochaine enquête française du programme européen Generations and Gender Programme.