Is it true that deaths outnumber births in Europe?
The total number of deaths in the 28 countries of the European Union in 2018 (5,307,758) was indeed higher than the number of births (4,976,628); natural population decrease therefore came to -331,130. Despite that decrease, the EU28 population was estimated in January 2019 at nearly 513.5 million; that is, 1.1 million people more than the previous year. This finding led to attributing the 2019 increase in the EU28 population entirely to adjusted net migration: in 2018, net migration represented an increase of 1.4 million people.
Given that number of deaths can be expected to rise as the baby-boom generation ages, and assuming that fertility rates remain relatively low, negative natural population growth in Europe (more deaths than births) may well continue. If so, the degree to which the EU28 population contracts or expands will largely depend on migration.
To find out more :
Gilles Pison, "Population trends in the United States and Europe: similarities and differences", Population & Societies , 446, june 2008