Is it true that deaths outnumber births in Europe?
Since 2012, natural increase in the European Union has been negative (more deaths than births). This is due to a rise in number of deaths as baby-boomers age, and to relatively low fertility rates in Europe. But in 2020-2021, for the first time, the population of Europe fell, meaning that net migration did not compensate for negative natural increase.
In 2021, the number of deaths continued to rise, reaching around 5.3 million in EU 27 (the 27-member-state EU), and once again exceeded births, which came to around 4.1 million. This in turn deepened the natural increase deficit, which was slightly greater than -1.2 million—as against minus half a million in 2019! Net migration, meanwhile, is estimated at +1.1 million for the year, more entries than departures ut not enough to compensate for negative natural increase. In total, therefore, the population of Europe on January 1, 2022, had fallen by approximately 200,000 compared to January 1, 2021. The EU 27 population on January 1, 2022, is estimated at approximately 447 million (446,828,803 people).
How much the EU27 population contracts or expands depends to a large extent on migration. But not all EU countries have to rely on migration to compensate for a fall in population: natural increase remained positive in ten EU member states in 2021.
Source : Évolution de la population - Bilan démographique et taux bruts au niveau national, Eurostat, date de l’extraction juillet 2020.