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New Demographic Scenarios in the Mediterranean Region

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Collection : Cahiers

142, 1999, 200 pages


Chapitre 1 La nécessité de revoir les projections démographiques

1. Les projections démographiques des Nations unies. De la version 1994 à la version 1998
2. Les projections démographiques de l'IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) pour l'Afrique du Nord, 1996
3. Approche méthodologique
4. L'effet de l'instruction sur la fécondité
5. Les ambiguïtés de la relation entre instruction et fécondité dans la région méditerranéenne
6. Les hypothèses sous-jacentes aux scénarios de baisse de la fécondité
7. La méthodologie de la projection

Chapitre 2 Résultats détaillés par pays

I. Union du Maghreb arabe
1. Maroc 2. Algérie 3. Tunisie 4. Libye 5. Mauritanie

II. Plaine du Nil
1. Égypte 2. Soudan

III. Moyen-Orient du Nord
1. Syrie 2. Liban 3. Irak 4. Jordanie 5. Palestine 6. Israël 7. Turquie

IV. Moyen-Orient du Sud
1. Yémen 2. Arabie saoudite 3. Principautés du Golfe : Bahreïn, Koweït, Oman, Qatar, Émirats arabes unis 4. Iran

Chapitre 3 Implications de la croissance démographique sur la rive sud

1. La fin de l'explosion démographique
2. Quelles implications ?

Vue d'ensemble et conclusion

The Arab countries, plus Turkey, Iran and Israel, which together make up a large group of states with a combined population of over 360 million inhabitants, were until very recently experiencing explosive demographic growth. But the detailed examination of the most recent developments contained in this volume shows that the demographic transition is in fact now under way in each of these countries. All the indications are that for the region as a whole the average number of children per woman will fall from 4 to 2.3 by 2025. This means that in one generation from now the differences in fertility between one side of the Mediterranean and the other may be of just a few tenths. The new population projections presented here, which on many points contradict similar calculations made by a variety of institutions, produce a population estimate for 2025 of 586 million inhabitants. Only a few years ago, the expected figure was close to 700 million. Demographic growth is certainly going to continue, but at lower levels than used to be thought. Furthermore, reversals in the current trends are already in view: for each country we can date to within a few years the start of the fall in the annual number of births and then in the numbers entering the population of an active age. In a broader perspective, these revised demographic projections suggest the need for a new and more positive assessment of economic and social conditions in these Mediterranean countries for the next twenty-five years.

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